21.8.14

 

Scotland can't save England

Salmond concluded his debate with Darling by observing that for half his lifetime Scotland had been ruled by governments that Scotland had not elected. Many take this the other way, and fret that if Scotland leaves the UK, then Labour would never win an election. Wings Over Scotland reviews the figures. While Scotland has an effect on the size of the majority, elections would yield the same ruling party with or without Scotland in 65 of the last 67 years. To a first approximation, Scotland's impact over the rest of the UK is nil, while the rest of the UK overwhelms Scotland's choice half the time.

1945 Labour govt (Attlee)
————————————
Labour majority: 146
Labour majority without any Scottish MPs in Parliament: 143
NO CHANGE WITHOUT SCOTTISH MPS

1950 Labour govt (Attlee)
————————————
Labour majority: 5
Without Scottish MPs: 2
NO CHANGE

1951 Conservative govt (Churchill/Eden)
——————————————————–
Conservative majority: 17
Without Scottish MPs: 16
NO CHANGE

1955 Conservative govt (Eden/Macmillan)
——————————————————–
Conservative majority: 60
Without Scottish MPs: 61
NO CHANGE

1959 Conservative govt (Macmillan/Douglas-Home)
————————————————————————
Conservative majority: 100
Without Scottish MPs: 109
NO CHANGE

1964 Labour govt (Wilson)
————————————
Labour majority: 4
Without Scottish MPs: -11
CHANGE: LABOUR MAJORITY TO CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY OF 1(Con 280, Lab 274, Lib 5)

1966 Labour govt (Wilson)
————————————
Labour majority: 98
Without Scottish MPs: 77
NO CHANGE

1970 Conservative govt (Heath)
——————————————–
Conservative majority: 30
Without Scottish MPs: 55
NO CHANGE

1974 Minority Labour govt (Wilson)
————————————————
Labour majority: -33
Without Scottish MPs: -42
POSSIBLE CHANGE – LABOUR MINORITY TO CONSERVATIVE MINORITY(Without Scots: Con 276, Lab 261, Lib 11, Others 16)

1974b Labour govt (Wilson/Callaghan)
—————————————————–
Labour majority: 3
Without Scottish MPs: -8
CHANGE: LABOUR MAJORITY TO LABOUR MINORITY(Lab 278 Con 261 Lib 10 others 15)

1979 Conservative govt (Thatcher)
————————————————
Conservative majority: 43
Without Scottish MPs: 70
NO CHANGE

1983 Conservative govt (Thatcher)
————————————————
Conservative majority: 144
Without Scottish MPs: 174
NO CHANGE

1987 Conservative govt (Thatcher/Major)
——————————————————
Conservative majority: 102
Without Scottish MPs: 154
NO CHANGE

1992 Conservative govt (Major)
———————————————
Conservative majority: 21
Without Scottish MPs: 71
NO CHANGE

1997 Labour govt (Blair)
———————————–
Labour majority: 179
Without Scottish MPs: 139
NO CHANGE

2001 Labour govt (Blair)
———————————–
Labour majority: 167
Without Scottish MPs: 129
NO CHANGE

2005 Labour govt (Blair/Brown)
——————————————–
Labour majority: 66
Without Scottish MPs:  43
NO CHANGE

2010 Coalition govt (Cameron)
——————————————
Conservative majority: -38
Without Scottish MPs: 19
CHANGE: CON-LIB COALITION TO CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY

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# posted by Philip Wadler @ 11:05 PM
Comments:
I don't have a horse in this race, being Australian. But as an observation, I do have to wonder why nobody is talking about home rule/devolution for England.

Federal states seem to work, at least some of the time. Would it be possible to turn the UK into one?
# posted by Blogger Pseudonym : 25/8/14 5:22 AM
 
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