In the
Huffington Post, Michael Moore give the most incisive (and hilarious) analysis I've seen. We have to understand why this is happening if we are to have a hope of preventing it.
1. Midwest Math, or Welcome to Our Rust Belt Brexit.
I believe Trump is going to focus much of his attention on the four
blue states in the rustbelt of the upper Great Lakes - Michigan, Ohio,
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Four traditionally Democratic states - but
each of them have elected a Republican governor since
2010 (only Pennsylvania has now finally elected a Democrat). In the
Michigan primary in March, more Michiganders came out to vote for the
Republicans (1.32 million) that the Democrats (1.19 million). Trump is
ahead of Hillary in the latest polls in Pennsylvania and tied with her
in Ohio. Tied? How can the race be this close after everything Trump has
said and done? Well maybe it’s because he’s said (correctly) that the
Clintons’ support of NAFTA helped to destroy the industrial states of
the Upper Midwest. ...
And this is
where the math comes in. In 2012, Mitt Romney lost by 64 electoral
votes. Add up the electoral votes cast by Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania
and Wisconsin. It’s 64. All Trump needs to do to win is to carry, as
he’s expected to do, the swath of traditional red states from Idaho to
Georgia (states that’ll never vote for Hillary
Clinton), and then he just needs these four rust belt states. He doesn’t
need Florida. He doesn’t need Colorado or Virginia. Just Michigan,
Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And that will put him over the top.
This is how it will happen in November.
4. The Depressed Sanders Vote. Stop fretting about
Bernie’s supporters not voting for Clinton - we’re voting for Clinton!
The polls already show that more Sanders voters will vote for Hillary
this year than the number of Hillary primary voters in ‘08 who then
voted for Obama. This is not the problem. The fire alarm that should be
going off is that while the average Bernie backer will drag him/herself
to the polls that day to somewhat reluctantly vote for Hillary, it will
be what’s called a “depressed vote” - meaning the voter doesn’t bring
five people to vote with her. He doesn’t volunteer 10 hours in the month
leading up to the election. She never talks in an excited voice when
asked why she’s voting for Hillary. A depressed voter. Because, when
you’re young, you have zero tolerance for phonies and BS. Returning to
the Clinton/Bush era for them is like suddenly having to pay for music,
or using MySpace or carrying around one of those big-ass portable
phones. They’re not going to vote for Trump; some will vote third party,
but many will just stay home. Hillary Clinton is going to have to do
something to give them a reason to support her — and picking a
moderate, bland-o, middle of the road old white guy as her running mate
is not the kind of edgy move that tells millenials that their vote is
important to Hillary. Having two women on the ticket - that was an
exciting idea. But then Hillary got scared and has decided to play it
safe. This is just one example of how she is killing the youth vote.
Labels: Politics, US
# posted by Philip Wadler @ 2:55 PM
