Imagine a future in which everyone enjoys high levels of wellbeing; where 90% of the world’s population doubles their income but works half the hours we work today. A world in which the bottom half of humanity sees its share of global wealth rise from just 2% today to 30%; a world where we consume enough, but nobody over-consumes. And imagine achieving this on a planet that can comfortably sustain human life without its climate breaking down.
Against the bleak techno-authoritarian futures now being sold to us, a radical new vision for global progress in the 21st century feels urgently needed. ...
What would this transition deliver? At its heart is convergence between countries. Average per capita national income, today separated by a 16-fold gap between the poorest (€290 a month in sub-Saharan Africa) and richest (€4,590 in North America/Oceania) regions of the world, would rise towards a common level of about €5,000 a month in all countries by 2100.
But this convergence is not just monetary. Annual working hours per employed person would fall from roughly 2,100 to about 1,000, continuing the long shift towards shorter working time; while the share of global working hours devoted to education and health would rise from 11% to 43%. Women and men would converge on equal pay and on an equal share of economic and domestic labour.
All of this would unfold within a habitable climate. Thanks to sustainable convergence and fast decarbonisation, global heating would reach 1.8C, against more than 4C on current trends.
None of this will be possible without a deep contraction of inequality. The income scale between individuals would narrow to a ratio of one to five and the wealth scale to one to 10, prolonging what western and Nordic Europe achieved over the 20th century. The share of global wealth held by the poorest half of humanity would rise from 2% to 30%, while the share held by the billionaire class would fall from 6% to 0.05%.
