One ongoing debate regards the 'funding gap' that might be faced by Scottish science in
event of independence. I've been trying to track down numbers. Not
surprisingly, it depends on what assumptions you make.
The Royal Society of Edinburgh sponsored a series of discussions, now available in print and online,
Enlightening the Constitutional Debate. The following appears on page 182:
To maintain the international quality of our research base, Professor
Paterson added, we must maintain our access to international funding and
maintain our international standards. To do so, it has been calculated
that an independent Scotland would need to find an extra £300 million in
funds per annum – double the amount currently distributed by the
Scottish Funding Council.
Lindsay Paterson is my
colleague at the University of Edinburgh, so I wrote to him asking the
source of his figures. He referred me to his
detailed notes, where he explains (footnote 35) that
Public
expenditure on research in Scotland is about 0.95% of GDP, whereas the
average in the comparison developed countries noted in that footnote is
0.7%. The difference, 0.25%, is £325 million in a GDP of £130 billion.
So
the RSEs summary above is inaccurate: £300 million is not the
difference between what Scotland spends now and what it would need to
spend to fund science at the same level as currently, it is the
difference between what Scotland spends now and what it would spend if
it spent the same amount as a typical developed country.
So what is the actual 'funding gap'? Michael Danson at Heritot-Watt University has written a
note
that explains the numbers. Scotland wins 10-11% of the funding from UK
Research Council, but pays only around 9% of taxes. In addition, there
is funding from the remainder of the UK government and from UK
charities. Adding it all up, he puts the shortfall between £97 and £143
million, where the latter figure makes the assumption that no UK charity
will contribute a pence to Scotland. On more reasonable assumptions, a
figure of around £100 million seems more likely. As he notes, that's
less than the rise in science funding the Scottish Government has already
approved over the last decade.
That's two estimates. What figures have you seen for the funding gap?